Was searching at the Ultimate Packs in the abundance and noticed the listed affairs for packing a approaching stars amateur was 5.3%, which seemed appealing adapted to me accustomed the cryptic "less than 1%" adventitious we were accustomed to backpack TOTY players. Got me thinking...

If you accept a 5.3% adventitious of packing a approaching stars amateur in an ultimate pack, it agency you accept a 94.7% adventitious of NOT packing that player.

If you accessible 2 ultimate packs, the affairs of not packing a approaching stars amateur in either is .947*.947 = 89.7% chance, which corresponds to a 10.3% adventitious of packing.

If you accessible 5 ultimate packs, this becomes 1- (.947^5) = 23.8% chance.

Fast avant-garde to 13 ultimate packs, and this becomes 1-(.947^13) = 50.7% chance.

So you accept to accessible 13 ultimate packs until you become added acceptable than not to backpack a approaching stars player...

Ultimate Packs are 2500 fifa credibility each, 2500*13 = 32500 accepted fifa credibility to backpack a approaching stars player. Aback $100 gets you 12000 fifa points, it agency you should apprehend to absorb (32500/12000)*100 = about $271 dollars until you became added acceptable than not to get one of these cards if you just capital to rip accessible Ultimate Packs. Basically you're paying $271 for a bread cast at accepting one of these players.

Not account it boys.

Edit: anyone acicular out that this follows a binomial administration with anticipation of success = .053.

The accepted bulk of a binomial administration is (number of trials) * (probability of success), so if you capital an accepted bulk of 1, you should in fact apprehend to accessible 1/.053 = about 19 packs.

And Maths is altogether actual up to area you say the "expected bulk to get a approaching stars player". My assumption is that you meant it is "you've got a greater than 50% adventitious of packing a FS player" which is accomplished (if you said it like that)) buting the appellation "expected" is wrong.

Because it's binomial assumption at B(n,p) = B(n, 0.053), the accepted bulk is np, and if your n is 13. Aperture those packs gives you an accepted bulk of FS players from aperture 13 is 0.689.

To get an accepted bulk of 1, you allegation to accessible 1/0.053 = 18.868 packs. Acutely you can't accessible that abounding so alarm it 19.

Basically that cheap FIFA 19 Coins just makes it not account it even more.